The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a moderate El Niño state and the forecast indicates that it will remain in at least a weak El Niño state throughout early- and mid-summer. Caution is advised however, as ENSO forecasts are less skilful during the winter and spring periods.
There is an indication of above-normal rainfall conditions during early-spring (Aug-Sep-Oct) for parts of the winter-rainfall region. Below-normal rainfall, however, is expected over parts of the south coast throughout early-, mid- (Sep-Oct-Nov) and late-spring (Oct-Nov-Dec). The eastern coastal areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during late-spring. Forecasts for the central interior indicate a higher chance of increased rainfall intensity (>15mm per rainfall day) during mid-spring.
With regards to temperatures, mostly higher than normal temperatures are expected for the northern most parts of the country from early- through mid- to late-spring. The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor and provide updates of any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.
